Soybean Oil COT Index: 10 Years of Extreme Positioning
On April 28, 2026, Commercials in soybean oil held a net short position of 183,095 contracts. That was their largest net short in ten years. Six months later the position has been cut almost in half, and the COT Index is back at 34.7. How often has this market reached an extreme, what happened next, and how does it line up with seasonality? We checked every week since October 2016.
How we read the Commercials COT Index
Commercials in soybean oil are soybean crushers, refiners and biofuel producers hedging their physical product. The CFTC COT report shows their net position (long minus short contracts) every week. In soybean oil they are almost always net short, so the raw number says little on its own. We put it in context with the COT Index.
COT Index = (current net position − 156 week minimum) / (156 week maximum − 156 week minimum) × 100
A reading above 90 means Commercials are near their largest net long (or smallest net short) position of the past three years. A reading below 10 means the opposite: they are selling aggressively and are close to their largest net short. You can see the index for every market in our free COT demo.
Ten years of soybean oil: how often we hit an extreme
From October 25, 2016 to October 20, 2026 there are 522 weekly COT reports for CBOT soybean oil. Of these:
- 57 weeks with the index above 90, spread across 10 separate periods;
- 47 weeks with the index below 10, also across 10 separate periods.
The zone above 90 appears mainly in 2017 and 2018, in 2023, in the first half of 2024 and briefly at the end of December 2025. The zone below 10 shows up at the end of 2016, around the turn of 2020, from September 2020 to March 2021 and from March to May 2026.
This is where soybean oil teaches something that should not be missed. The longest stretches below 10 coincide with two of the strongest uptrends on the chart. From September 2020 to March 2021 price climbed from about 34 to above 50 cents per pound, and in 2026 from about 50 to almost 80 cents. When prices rally hard, crushers and producers sell their future output forward and add to their hedges. In that environment a record Commercial net short reflects the trend rather than necessarily warning of a top.
2026 is the clearest example. On April 28 Commercials reached the record of −183,095 contracts, with the front month closing at 73.38 cents. Price rose another 7.8% to 79.09 cents on June 1, 2026, and only then did a correction start. As of October 26 price is at 67.01 cents, 15.3% below the peak. The COT data showed where the pressure had built up, but it did not provide the timing.
The opposite extreme came on June 25, 2024: the largest Commercial net long of the period, +75,083 contracts.
What follows the first week in the zone
To test this in numbers we ran a backtest. We take the first week the index enters a zone, with at least 26 weeks between two signals of the same type. Entry is the close on the Friday after the report date (when the CFTC releases it). We measure the price change after 4, 8, 13 and 26 weeks and compare it with the average change for all weeks in the period. The zone below 10 in autumn 2016 had already started in September 2016, before the study period, so it is not included.
| Report date | Index | 4 wks | 8 wks | 13 wks | 26 wks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 90 | |||||
| 03/21/2017 | 100.0 | −0.9% | +4.8% | +0.2% | +9.7% |
| 05/01/2018 | 96.2 | +3.8% | −3.1% | −6.9% | −9.9% |
| 03/14/2023 | 99.8 | −6.6% | −13.2% | +8.8% | +16.2% |
| 12/26/2023 | 97.7 | −4.5% | −10.4% | −5.3% | −17.1% |
| 12/23/2025 | 92.4 | +6.2% | +15.9% | +39.6% | +44.3% |
| Below 10 | |||||
| 12/17/2019 | 0.0 | −1.3% | −7.9% | −19.3% | −12.6% |
| 09/15/2020 | 4.9 | −0.8% | +11.6% | +23.3% | +77.0% |
| 11/12/2024 | 8.2 | −6.8% | +2.0% | +7.5% | +16.4% |
| 07/29/2025 | 8.8 | −3.0% | −3.9% | −3.8% | +3.6% |
| 03/10/2026 | 0.0 | +4.9% | +17.7% | +13.5% | +1.9% |
- Below 10 works as a warning only in the first month. Four weeks after the signal price is on average 1.4% lower, and only 1 of 5 signals was positive. After 8 and 13 weeks, however, the average change is positive (+3.9% and +4.2%), and after 26 weeks it is +17.3%. That last figure is pulled up by 2020 (+77.0%) and should not be read as a rule.
- Above 90 is not a signal to buy right away. Four and eight weeks after the first week in the zone price is on average lower (−0.4% and −1.2%), with only 2 of 5 signals positive. Commercials buy into declines, and their accumulation runs for weeks before the low.
- The 13 and 26 week averages for the zone above 90 come down to one signal. Without December 2025 (+39.6% over 13 weeks), the 13 week average is −0.8%.
For comparison, the average change across all weeks is +1.1% over 4 weeks, +2.3% over 8, +3.9% over 13 and +8.7% over 26 weeks. The sample is small: 5 signals per zone in ten years. This is context for a decision, not a statistically proven system.
Seasonality during these periods
The average seasonal curve for the last ten years (2016 to 2025) has the following shape:
- January to the end of April: a steady climb to about +9% from the start of the year;
- early June: a first peak around June 9 (about +12%), followed by a sharp drop late in the month;
- July and August: a recovery to about +11.5% by the end of August;
- September: weakness into a low around September 30 (about +7%);
- October and early November: a climb to the high of the year around November 11 (about +13.6%);
- mid November to the end of December: easing, with the year ending at about +10% on average.
The 15 year curve is much flatter: a peak around early June (about +7.9%) and a year end of about +2.7%. The difference comes from the strong years after 2020, which lift the ten year average.
Extreme Commercial positioning has its own calendar too. Weeks above 90 are concentrated from March to June (33 of 57 weeks), with none at all in October or November. Weeks below 10 are most common in November and December (17 of 47 weeks) and in March, with none in June or August. In other words, Commercials hedge most aggressively after the U.S. harvest, right around the autumn seasonal high, and lighten their hedges in spring.
The average curve hides something important for where we are right now. Comparing the October 27 close with the end of December for each of the last ten years, price finished lower in 8 of 10 years. The median is −3.7%. The mean is only −0.7%, because 2020 (+30.0%) pulls it up.
Where we are now
According to CFTC data as of October 20, 2026:
- Commercials net position: −93,393 contracts (COT Index 34.7);
- large speculators net position: +81,627 contracts;
- open interest: 570,462 contracts;
- weekly change for Commercials: +30,774 contracts, the tenth largest weekly short covering in ten years.
Since the April record, Commercials have covered 89,702 short contracts, while large speculators have reduced their net long by 90,185 contracts. Open interest is 23.6% below its April 21, 2026 level (746,951 contracts). This is a picture of unwinding: the trend that built the record positions is no longer holding them.
The daily chart shows a market consolidating sideways after the correction. Since the start of September closes have ranged between 65.97 and 72.37 cents. Since October 13 price has closed below the 18 day moving average for 10 straight sessions. On October 26 the close was 67.01 with the 18 SMA at 67.43, and the average has been edging lower from 69.51 on September 22.
Here is what the three frameworks say right now:
- COT: the index is at 34.7, in neutral territory. There is no extreme and no signal under our filter. Fast short covering by Commercials into a falling price shows hedgers buying the dip, but the zone above 90 is still a long way off.
- Seasonality: from late October to the end of December price finished lower in 8 of 10 years. The seasonal wind is not at buyers' backs.
- Price: below the 18 SMA, in a narrow range, with no breakout in either direction.
When none of the tools gives a clear direction, the best position is often no position. The scenario worth watching: if the COT Index keeps rising toward 90 during November and December, the seasonally weak period, it would line up with the start of the seasonally strong stretch from January to April. The backtest shows that even then the first 4 to 8 weeks in the zone above 90 often bring more pressure, so the entry has to come from price.
5 mistakes when trading COT extremes in soybean oil
- Reading an index below 10 as an automatic sell signal. In 2020 and in 2026 record Commercial shorts coincided with strong uptrends. In a trend, hedging grows along with price.
- Buying the first week above 90. After 4 and 8 weeks the average change is negative. Commercials buy into declines and can stay in the zone for months.
- Ignoring price. The COT Index is a directional filter. The entry comes from price structure: a breakout, a reversal, a test of a level, the position relative to the moving average.
- Seasonality without context. The ten year curve ends the year at about +10%, the fifteen year curve at about +2.7%. One strong year like 2020 changes the average. Look at the median and at how many years moved in that direction.
- Large size on a small sample. Five signals in ten years are not statistics. Use the risk calculator with a fixed percentage risk, and check open interest.
How we use this in practice
In our strategy Commercial COT positioning is a mandatory filter: we do not look for longs when Commercials are in an extreme short zone, and vice versa. Soybean oil shows that the filter has to be read together with the trend. Seasonality and price structure decide the timing. Right now the filter is neutral, seasonality leans weak and price is in a range. We are waiting for the market to show its direction.
Frequently asked questions
How many times has the soybean oil COT Index been above 90 in ten years?
57 weeks out of 522, spread across 10 separate periods. The longest ran from June 12 to September 18, 2018 (15 weeks).
How many times has it been below 10?
47 weeks across 10 periods. The longest ran from October 27, 2020 to January 12, 2021 (12 weeks), and the most recent from March 10 to May 19, 2026 (11 weeks).
Why do you use 156 weeks for the COT Index?
Three years cover several seasonal cycles and several harvests. A shorter window gives more signals, but also more noise.
How did you calculate prices and seasonality?
For the backtest and the seasonality we use the continuous front month ZL=F, back-adjusted at contract rolls so that the gaps between contracts are not counted as price movement. The weekly and daily charts show the actual front month price in cents per pound.
Is this a signal to buy or sell soybean oil now?
No. This is an analysis of historical data. The COT Index is in neutral territory, seasonality into year end leans weak, and the entry should always come from price and from your own risk management.
Conclusion
Over ten years, Commercials in soybean oil were at an extreme in roughly one week out of five. Unlike many other markets, the zone below 10 here was a reliable warning only for the first month, and its longest stretches coincided with the strongest price trends. The zone above 90 is not a buy-now signal either. Today the record short from April has been half unwound, the index is neutral and seasonality into year end offers no help. This is a market to watch, not one for quick decisions.
You can follow the current COT Index for soybean oil and dozens of other markets in the free demo, while the weekly analyses and the full toolset are available in our membership plans.
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy, Futures Only), data as of 10/20/2026; Yahoo Finance (ZL=F), prices as of 10/26/2026. Calculations: fmoney.eu. Futures trading carries a high risk of loss. This content is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.