Gasoline COT Index: 10 Years of Extreme Positioning
On October 26, 2026, RBOB gasoline (RB) closed at $3.218 per gallon, 7.5% above its 200-day moving average. Managed Money funds hold +93,712 net long contracts, close to their largest long of the past three years. Commercial traders, however, are not at an extreme: their COT Index stands at 30.8. When were there extremes over the past 10 years, what followed, and what does seasonality say? We checked every week since October 2016.
How we read the Commercials COT Index
Commercials in gasoline are refiners, fuel merchants and distributors, plus the banks that provide them with hedges (swap dealers). The CFTC COT report shows their net position (long minus short contracts) every week. Refiners sell their future output forward, so Commercials in gasoline are always net short. The raw number says little on its own, so we put it into context with the COT Index.
COT Index = (current net position − 156-week minimum) / (156-week maximum − 156-week minimum) × 100
An index above 90 means Commercials are close to their smallest net short position of the past three years. An index below 10 means the opposite: they are selling aggressively and are near their largest net short position. You can see the index for every market in our free COT demo.
10 years of gasoline: how often we reach an extreme
From October 25, 2016 to October 20, 2026 there are 522 weekly COT reports for NYMEX RBOB gasoline. Of these:
- 34 weeks with the index above 90, in 13 separate periods;
- 44 weeks with the index below 10, in 14 separate periods.
The periods are short: the longest above 90 ran from May 10 to July 12, 2022 (10 weeks), and no period below 10 lasted more than 5 weeks. The index spends 85% of the time between 10 and 90.
In gasoline the extremes follow a clear calendar. 30 of the 34 weeks above 90 fall between May and September, during the US driving season. Weeks below 10 are most common from November to January (19 of 44), when winter-grade gasoline trades.
The two extreme readings are telling. The largest Commercials net short was −136,890 contracts on January 21, 2020, with the price at $1.637. By March 23, 2020, gasoline had fallen to $0.412. The smallest net short was −12,039 contracts on September 10, 2024, with the price at $1.870; by January 15, 2025, it had climbed to $2.159.
What follows the first week in the zone
To test this in numbers, we ran a backtest. We take the first week in which the index enters a zone, with at least 26 weeks between two signals of the same type. Entry is the close on the Friday after the report date (when the CFTC publishes it). We measure the price change after 4, 8, 13 and 26 weeks and compare it with the average change for all weeks in the period. Gasoline rolls to a new front month every month, and in spring and autumn it also switches between summer and winter grades, so prices are back-adjusted on the first trading day of each month.
| Report date | Index | 4 wk | 8 wk | 13 wk | 26 wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 90 | |||||
| 05/09/2017 | 100.0 | −4.1% | −5.5% | +4.4% | +51.7% |
| 06/30/2020 | 91.1 | −3.1% | −0.2% | −2.8% | +21.3% |
| 07/20/2021 | 100.0 | −8.1% | +6.6% | +22.0% | +23.0% |
| 05/10/2022 | 93.0 | +5.6% | −13.6% | −11.2% | −11.4% |
| 10/17/2023 | 93.9 | −6.4% | −5.0% | −3.5% | +8.0% |
| 06/18/2024 | 90.6 | −4.4% | −6.7% | −8.0% | −9.6% |
| 03/11/2025 | 95.9 | −7.7% | −3.3% | +1.5% | +0.3% |
| Below 10 | |||||
| 01/17/2017 | 4.3 | −6.4% | −11.1% | −8.2% | −12.1% |
| 11/14/2017 | 6.1 | −5.9% | +7.4% | +2.3% | +26.6% |
| 07/10/2018 | 9.4 | +0.8% | +4.7% | +1.9% | −23.9% |
| 12/24/2019 | 6.2 | −13.6% | −4.9% | −70.0% | −44.7% |
| 01/23/2024 | 3.8 | −1.3% | +4.7% | +7.7% | +2.7% |
| 11/10/2025 | 6.1 | −8.9% | −8.5% | +3.4% | +91.8% |
The result is unusual, and we say so plainly:
- In gasoline, above 90 is not a buy signal. After 4 weeks the price was lower in 6 of 7 cases (average −4.0% versus +2.3% for all weeks), and after 8 weeks again in 6 of 7 (average −4.0%). Most signals come in midsummer, when the driving season is already priced in.
- Below 10 works as a classic warning of weakness, but briefly. After 4 weeks the price was lower in 5 of 6 cases (average −5.9%). After 8 weeks the picture is mixed (3 of 6 positive), because winter signals run into the spring rally in summer-grade gasoline. The 13-week average (−10.5%) is pulled down by early 2020 (−70.0%, COVID).
- The latest below-10 signal came in autumn 2025. It gave −8.9% over 4 weeks. In February 2026 the index fell below 10 again, but shortly afterwards the war with Iran sent gasoline up more than 50%.
For comparison, the average change for all weeks is +2.3% over 4 weeks, +4.7% over 8, +7.6% over 13 and +14.8% over 26 weeks. The back-adjusted gasoline price rises most of the time because the futures are often in backwardation and rolling earns a yield. The sample is small: 7 signals above 90 and 6 below 10 in 10 years. This is context for a decision, not a statistically proven system.
Seasonality in these periods
The average seasonal curve for the last 10 years (2016 to 2025), based on the back-adjusted price, rises for most of the year:
- January to early March: a rise to about +7% around March 5, then a brief pullback;
- April to mid-May: a climb to about +11%, as the market buys summer-grade gasoline;
- late May to late July: sideways between +8% and +11%;
- August to late October: the strongest stretch, up to the high of the year around October 27 (about +20%);
- November to mid-December: a decline to about +11%, then a recovery to about +16% by year end.
The 15-year curve has the same shape, peaking around October 8 (about +16%) and ending the year at about +13.5%.
Today we are right at the seasonal peak. Comparing the October 27 close with the end of December for each of the last 10 years, the price ended lower in 6 of 10 years. The median is −3.0% and the mean is −1.1%.
Where we are now
According to CFTC data as of October 20, 2026:
- Commercials net position: −81,044 contracts (COT Index 30.8);
- Managed Money net position: +93,712 contracts (156-week index 94.0);
- open interest: 337,457 contracts;
- the Managed Money index has been above 80 since early September 2026.
This is the most interesting detail. Funds are almost as long as in November 2025 (+99,395 contracts), when the Commercials index fell below 10 and gasoline dropped 8.9% in a month. This time, however, Commercials are not selling aggressively and their index sits mid-range.
The daily chart shows a strong rally followed by a sideways range. From the 12-month low ($1.681 on December 16, 2025), gasoline climbed to $3.772 on April 30, 2026. Since then the price has moved between about $2.85 and $3.65. Today's close is $3.218, 7.5% above the 200-day average but slightly below the 18-day average ($3.241).
The three frameworks currently say:
- COT: the Commercials index is 30.8, neutral. No signal under our filter. Funds, however, are crowded long.
- Seasonality: we are right at the seasonal peak. In 6 of 10 years the price was lower by the end of December.
- Price: above the 200-day average, below the 18-day, in a wide sideways range.
The scenario we are watching: if the Commercials index falls below 10 in November or December while funds are this long, we would have the same combination as in 2017, 2019 and 2025, when the price fell over the following 4 weeks.
5 mistakes when working with COT extremes in gasoline
- Buying just because the index is above 90. In gasoline it arrives in summer, and in 6 of 7 cases the price was lower a month later.
- Holding the short too long. Below-10 signals work for about 4 weeks. After that comes the spring rally in summer-grade gasoline.
- Ignoring crude oil. Gasoline follows crude and the refining margin. 4 of 5 failures above 90 coincided with falling crude.
- Comparing prices across seasons without adjustment. The switch between summer and winter grades moves the front-month price by 4% to 11% on roll day.
- Large size on a small sample. 13 signals in 10 years are not statistics. Use the risk calculator and check open interest.
How we use it in practice
In our strategy, Commercials positioning is a mandatory filter: we do not look for longs when commercial traders are at an extreme short, and vice versa. In gasoline the filter is currently neutral, seasonality is at its peak, and funds are crowded long. Without a COT extreme, entry comes only from price structure and risk management.
Frequently asked questions
How many times has the gasoline COT Index been above 90 in 10 years?
34 weeks out of 522, in 13 separate periods. The longest ran from May 10 to July 12, 2022 (10 weeks).
How many times has it been below 10?
44 weeks in 14 periods, none longer than 5 weeks.
Why is above 90 not a buy signal in gasoline?
Because it arrives almost only in summer, when refiners hedge less and seasonal demand is already priced in. After summer the market switches to cheaper winter-grade gasoline.
How did you calculate prices and seasonality?
We use the continuous front month RB=F, back-adjusted on the first trading day of each month when the front month changes. This also removes the jumps from the switch between summer and winter grades. The charts show the actual front-month price in dollars per gallon.
Is this a signal to buy or sell gasoline now?
No. This is an analysis of historical data. The COT Index is neutral, seasonality is at its peak, and entry should always come from price and your own risk management.
Conclusion
Over 10 years, Commercials in gasoline were at an extreme in about 15% of weeks, in short periods and with a clear seasonal rhythm. The above-90 zone arrives in summer and in 6 of 7 cases was followed by a lower price a month later. The below-10 zone comes mostly in winter and warns of weakness over the next 4 weeks, but no longer. Today gasoline is at its seasonal peak, funds are crowded long, and commercial traders are neutral. Positioning gives no signal yet, but the picture is closer to a warning than to a buy.
You can follow the current COT Index for gasoline and dozens of other markets in our free demo; weekly analyses and the full toolset are available in our membership plans.
Sources: CFTC Commitments of Traders (Legacy and Disaggregated, Futures Only), data as of 10/20/2026; Yahoo Finance (RB=F), prices as of 10/26/2026. Calculations: fmoney.eu. Trading futures involves a high risk of loss. This content is for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.