COT Index: user guide
Commitments of Traders (COT) data: a description of the columns and guidance on interpretation
1. What is the COT Index?
The COT (Commitments of Traders) report is a weekly report from the US regulator, the CFTC, that shows how the three main groups of participants are positioned in futures markets. The COT Index expresses current positioning as a percentile rank against a historical period, telling you how extreme a position is compared with the past.
The table shows data for many instruments (indices, currencies, commodities, cryptocurrencies) and allows a quick visual assessment through colour coding.
2. Trader types (Com / NC / PUB)
| Type | Full name | Who are they? | How to interpret them? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Com | Commercial Traders (hedgers) | Producers, banks, corporations that use futures to hedge real business risk | Smart money: they know the fundamentals. Extremely long Com = bottom. Extremely short Com = top. |
| NC | Non Commercial (speculators) | Hedge funds, CTAs, institutional speculators trading for profit | Trend followers. Extremely long = the trend is mature, watch for a reversal. |
| PUB | Public / Non Reportable (retail) | Small speculators: individuals and small funds below the reporting threshold | Contrarian indicator: historically wrong at extremes. Extremely long PUB = signal of a reversal down. |
3. Description of each column
| Column | Description | Practical tip |
|---|---|---|
| Name | Name of the financial instrument or market (e.g. S&P 500 E-Mini, Bitcoin Mini, Australian Dollar). Identifies the asset. | n/a |
| Date | Date of the latest published COT report (DD-MM-YYYY format). The CFTC publishes the data every Friday with a 3 day lag. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 6m Com | Percentile rank of Commercial traders (hedgers) over the last 6 months. Shows whether hedgers are unusually long or short relative to historical norms. | Values below 20 = extremely low (potential short). Values above 80 = extremely high. |
| 6m NC | Percentile rank of Non Commercial traders (speculators/funds) over 6 months. These participants drive market trends. | High rank = speculators are heavily long (watch for a reversal). |
| 6m(PUB) | Percentile rank of the Public (small speculators/retail traders) over 6 months. Retail traders have historically been wrong at extremes. | Contrarian indicator: when retail is extremely long, the market may fall. |
| 1y Com | Percentile rank of Commercial traders over the last year (52 weeks). A longer period gives a more reliable signal. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 1y NC | Percentile rank of Non Commercial traders over the last year. Combine with 6m NC to confirm a trend. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 3y Com | Percentile rank of Commercial traders over 3 years. Long term context: shows positioning in a broader historical perspective. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 3y NC | Percentile rank of Non Commercial traders over 3 years. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 3y(PUB) | Percentile rank of Public traders over 3 years. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 4y Com | Percentile rank of Commercial traders over 4 years. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 4y NC | Percentile rank of Non Commercial traders over 4 years. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 5y Com | Percentile rank of Commercial traders over 5 years. A very long term indicator. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 5y NC | Percentile rank of Non Commercial traders over 5 years. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 6y Com | Percentile rank of Commercial traders over 6 years, the longest historical window in the table. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
| 6y NC | Percentile rank of Non Commercial traders over 6 years. | Compare values across the different time windows to confirm a signal. |
4. Colour coding (heat map)
The cells are coloured like a heat map: the colour reflects the percentile rank of the value.
| Colour | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Dark green | Value above roughly the 80th percentile (extremely bullish) |
| Neutral (white) | Mid range values (30th to 70th percentile) |
| Dark red | Value below roughly the 20th percentile (extremely bearish) |
5. How to use the table: practical guidance
Step 1: filter and sort
Use the 'All' field (top left) to filter by instrument category. You can sort by any column by clicking its header.
Step 2: look for extreme values
- Dark red cells in the 'Com' columns = hedgers are extremely short (potential bearish signal)
- Dark green cells in the 'Com' columns = hedgers are extremely long (potential bullish signal)
- Look for the opposite in the 'NC' columns: speculators are trend followers
Step 3: confirm across several time periods
A signal is more reliable when it is consistent across different time windows (6m, 1y, 3y). If 6m Com and 3y Com are both dark red at the same time, the signal is stronger.
Step 4: cross check the three trader types
Ideal bullish scenario: Com = high value (dark green) + NC = low value + PUB = low value. Hedgers are buying while speculators and retail are selling.
6. Important notes
- COT data has a 3 day lag: every Friday the CFTC publishes data as of the previous Tuesday
- COT is a confirming, not a predictive, tool: it confirms trends rather than predicting exact tops and bottoms
- An 'X' in a cell means the data is not available for that period
- Use COT together with technical analysis for better results
- The percentile rank is calculated only from the historical data available for each instrument
Data from the CFTC. Futures trading carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for everyone. This material is educational and is not investment advice.